From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
Owing to uncertainties on higher inflation and muted growth in the United States (US), coupled with concerns around America's rising debt and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, the world's largest economy has become the epicentre of an unabated record rally in prices of precious metals.
The Rs 1-trillion Research Development and Innovation (RDI) fund, which was announced in the July budget for FY25, of which Rs 20,000 crore has already been allocated, will be operationalised in the next two to three months, a top official said.
The era where nations thrived through rigid alignments is giving way to an age where the connective State defines power. For India, that era has arrived, points out Dr Nishakant Ojha.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
Foreign investors offloaded Indian equities worth nearly Rs 21,000 crore in the first half of August, pressured by US-India trade tensions, lacklustre first-quarter corporate earnings, and a weakening rupee.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Larsen & Toubro rallied nearly 5 per cent. Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and Asian Paints were also among the major gainers. ITC Hotels, Zomato, Nestle and Maruti were among the laggards.
'Immigrants have always been America's greatest strength, building prosperity, breakthroughs, and communities that enrich us all. Instead of embracing that strength, Trump is clamping down on every form of immigration, tearing families apart, destabilising businesses, and weakening our economy'
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
France today increasingly resembles the Italy of the past, when governments fell with bewildering regularity, prime ministers came and went in rapid succession, and political instability became the norm rather than the exception, point out Krishnan Srinivasan and Manoj Mohanka.
Uncertainties over the impact of the United States' (US') tariffs on India, along with the ongoing transmission of past rate cuts, prompted the members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain the status quo during the August meeting, the minutes showed. While some of the external members highlighted their concern over growth, the internal members cited the one-year headline inflation rate overshooting the 4 per cent target.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, and NTPC were among the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
The additional 25 per cent tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on India is set to deliver a major blow to West Bengal's export-driven economy, with the state's labour-intensive leather, engineering and marine sectors expecting losses ahead of the festive season, stakeholders said. The increased levies on Indian products for the country's purchases of Russian oil came into effect on Wednesday, bringing the total amount of tariff imposed on New Delhi to 50 per cent.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
'...it should not delude itself into thinking that India's security or its great-power ambitions will be advanced by those partnerships.'
'Instead, what India should focus on is on riding out the next three-and-a-half years of Trump's presidency with minimal damage to itself.'
'Both initiatives are welcome moves and we would commit ourselves with focused attention aligned with the national priorities, and pursue our exploration initiatives.'
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions.
The MiG-21 episode demonstrates that procurement is always strategic.
Choices about what aircraft to acquire, who builds them, who supplies the spares, who trains the pilots and technicians are decisions with political consequences lasting for decades.
'People are taking effort to train and adapt to current skills.' 'If that is not there, they are not useful to us.' 'They have to adapt to new technology, and what is important is learnability.'
In the Indian stock market, investors are interested in the actions of both domestic and foreign institutional investors (FIIs and DIIs). These groups have wealth as well as expertise in research, which makes them powerful participants in the Indian stock market. Their buy and sell positions have a large effect on stock prices and market sentiment due to the large volume.
To enable Indian banks and financial institutions to develop an aircraft-leasing ecosystem at GIFT City, the Ministry of Civil Aviation has sought support from the Ministry of Finance. It has also raised concern over slow progress in developing aircraft leasing in India.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
Gold prices advanced Rs 700 to reach a new lifetime high of Rs 91,950 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday on the back of continued buying by jewellers ahead of wedding season, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Besides, increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economic slowdown have kept the demand for safe-haven assets intact.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
'While investors believe in India's long-term growth story and resilience amid global uncertainty, they see near-term risks around the direction of a global trade war.'
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
'While investing in a silver ETF, one should be aware that it has historically exhibited higher price volatility than gold.'
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
From the Sensex firms, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, HCL Tech, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and Bajaj Finserv were the biggest gainers. In contrast, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, Power Grid, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the laggards.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 5.98 lakh crore on Thursday, tracking weak trends in equities where the BSE Sensex tumbled 1 per cent. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined 1 per cent in tandem with weak global market trends amid growing tensions in the Middle East.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
Sensex sinks 573 pts on global tensions and high crude prices
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
'Listing of scaled Indian subsidiaries of multinational corporations as well as of Indian conglomerates continues to remain a key theme for IPOs in India.'
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